| The Cycle-LT Method is based 20 years original cyclical research. There are no fees here - traders and investors are invited to use the predictive charts in concert with technical studies and other methods. Including [Intraday]. On this page - Scroll Down - one central chart series is explained. [The Principal Predictive Tool] These studies are then simplified into a second charts series: [Cycle-LT144Z] - see separate explanatory text. In addition: [Rules of Interpretation], and here not only US-Stocks are covered, but bonds, gold, crude oil, dollar versus Swiss Franc and Newmont Mining - with a chart extended through 2019. Here letters, and see what one of my peers says, a good friend of mine found it: |
| I appreciated the kind words from Jay Strauss - Jaywiz Financial Re$ources: "This chart is from HELGE. He is one of the best in world - but his graphs can be complicated. However....." Jay is a seasoned cyclical analyst himself, and I realize I do need to introduce the method properly for all kinds of visitors - with varying cycle experience. Working alone - you are thinking - this everyone will understand, but thats not the way it is. I can struggle to take in other analysts ideas, and if I find them complicated - I will likely turn away. THEREFOR READ my Chart Explanations below, in concert with the charts. Then follow this Chart Series [9] on a daily basis, and it might give a good feel of major trends, and events for Dow Jones. Here more Explanations. Then a single indicator has also been developed, here with charts and text. Finally: [Intraday Interpretation Page] |
These Nine Charts are excerpts of more elaborate chart studies starting from here. This
particular chart series is also called Closer View on some pages. Those who wish to keep
it simple, can stay on [bookmark] this page, or the even more simpler: [Cycle-LT144Z].
[Chart Explanations Updated: January 4th 2010]
CHART 1: The Raw Numbers Extra [R#X -blue graph] is a sum of 15 single cycles
based on the price history of Dow Jones from 1885 to current time. When new price history
is accumulated, it is baked into the prediction, with effect only on the unknown future. Thus
every graph is a true prediction also for the past.
A Green Center Line is drawn according to certain rules, then inserted two parallel lines to
make a Channel. These lines might suggest the bigger trend, like from March 2009.
One should study the history of R#X or Raw Numbers Proper - for comparison. The latter
is based on price history prior to year 2000. The ripples in the Raw Number might predict
moves, they might lead or lag the price [Dow Jones].
Left hand rising slopes in R#X, only interrupted with brief declining spikes are bullish. While
declining right hand slopes, and brief left hand upward spikes are bearish. Left hand rising
slopes in R#X, only interrupted with brief declining spikes are bullish. This is like shifting the
grip. The reason the rally from March 2009, became as strong as it did, might be the width of
the cycle. It might be seen better here. Likewise the trend from 2003 to 2007, it has width,
and stayed above the 50% line.
A smoothed average called AVE34 might also give guidance to the interpretation. The
indicators have similarities to the Stochastic, and other oscillators. They often show
divergences, lower indicator while the price might edge higher - before it reverses. The same
for a reversal at a bottom or a low.
Then there might be other forces that can effect the price, more charts will follow. The
Center Trend Line and its channel, might suggest bigger price trend for Dow, still it is
recommended to study all these charts in concert with technical factors, charts and indicators,
to decide if trends are actually broken or new ones established. A weekly Stochastic of Dow
Jones seems very useful in concert with the Cycle-LT Indicators. All charts presented here
are to be considered probabilities.
CHART 2: Here AVE34, is showed separately and repeated from previous paragraph: The
indicators have similarities to the Stochastic, and other oscillators. They often shows
divergences, lower indicator while the price might edge higher - before it reverses. This
idea is refined in: [Cycle-LT144Z]
CHART 3: Clean version of R#X.
CHART 4 & 5: Chart 1 ZOOMED in a 15 and 4 months + perspective.
CHART 6 & 7 [ZOOMED]: The above indicators with three more Averages. They are
based on the various versions of the Raw Numbers. The Big Picture is based on 233 DMA
[two components]. COMB with less units in the Average. The purpose is simply to generate a
set of Averages to compare. To predict possible reversals the Raw Numbers itself is the
most important, then AVE34, COMB and Big Picture. All these indicators are explained
explained in more detail here.
CHART 8 : This is "Long Term" intraday studies, more in the Intraday Section, and Section
6 here.
Disclaimer: The charts or any comments herein are not to be considered
recommendations to buy or sell financial instruments or their derivatives. Repeat of
previous successes for The CYCLE - LT, can not be guarantied.
[Return to Stock Market Chart Page]
particular chart series is also called Closer View on some pages. Those who wish to keep
it simple, can stay on [bookmark] this page, or the even more simpler: [Cycle-LT144Z].
[Chart Explanations Updated: January 4th 2010]
CHART 1: The Raw Numbers Extra [R#X -blue graph] is a sum of 15 single cycles
based on the price history of Dow Jones from 1885 to current time. When new price history
is accumulated, it is baked into the prediction, with effect only on the unknown future. Thus
every graph is a true prediction also for the past.
A Green Center Line is drawn according to certain rules, then inserted two parallel lines to
make a Channel. These lines might suggest the bigger trend, like from March 2009.
One should study the history of R#X or Raw Numbers Proper - for comparison. The latter
is based on price history prior to year 2000. The ripples in the Raw Number might predict
moves, they might lead or lag the price [Dow Jones].
Left hand rising slopes in R#X, only interrupted with brief declining spikes are bullish. While
declining right hand slopes, and brief left hand upward spikes are bearish. Left hand rising
slopes in R#X, only interrupted with brief declining spikes are bullish. This is like shifting the
grip. The reason the rally from March 2009, became as strong as it did, might be the width of
the cycle. It might be seen better here. Likewise the trend from 2003 to 2007, it has width,
and stayed above the 50% line.
A smoothed average called AVE34 might also give guidance to the interpretation. The
indicators have similarities to the Stochastic, and other oscillators. They often show
divergences, lower indicator while the price might edge higher - before it reverses. The same
for a reversal at a bottom or a low.
Then there might be other forces that can effect the price, more charts will follow. The
Center Trend Line and its channel, might suggest bigger price trend for Dow, still it is
recommended to study all these charts in concert with technical factors, charts and indicators,
to decide if trends are actually broken or new ones established. A weekly Stochastic of Dow
Jones seems very useful in concert with the Cycle-LT Indicators. All charts presented here
are to be considered probabilities.
CHART 2: Here AVE34, is showed separately and repeated from previous paragraph: The
indicators have similarities to the Stochastic, and other oscillators. They often shows
divergences, lower indicator while the price might edge higher - before it reverses. This
idea is refined in: [Cycle-LT144Z]
CHART 3: Clean version of R#X.
CHART 4 & 5: Chart 1 ZOOMED in a 15 and 4 months + perspective.
CHART 6 & 7 [ZOOMED]: The above indicators with three more Averages. They are
based on the various versions of the Raw Numbers. The Big Picture is based on 233 DMA
[two components]. COMB with less units in the Average. The purpose is simply to generate a
set of Averages to compare. To predict possible reversals the Raw Numbers itself is the
most important, then AVE34, COMB and Big Picture. All these indicators are explained
explained in more detail here.
CHART 8 : This is "Long Term" intraday studies, more in the Intraday Section, and Section
6 here.
Disclaimer: The charts or any comments herein are not to be considered
recommendations to buy or sell financial instruments or their derivatives. Repeat of
previous successes for The CYCLE - LT, can not be guarantied.
[Return to Stock Market Chart Page]
Cycle - LT/ [US - Stock Market Cycles] Previous Market Comments .......
| [Introduction to the Cycle - LT METHOD] |