Cycle - LT/ [US - Stock Market Cycles] Stock Market Comments .......
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Market Comment Page:
Update [July 29 2010]: The regular comment page is updated.
Update [May 2nd 2010]: I have added changes for the Trigger Cycles, see Chart 6, 7A,
7B and 7C. Chart 6 shows the one in the daily graph, its an approximation, and since I have
been able to calculate it hourly, it will be displayed in Chart 7A, they can differ up to 24
hours give and take, for reasons explained in other updates. The one in 7A I call the Real
Trigger. I introduce two new Triggers, see text inside Chart 7B and 7C. Here the crossing of
the 50% line can also trigger events. As always this is for the "nerds," who might find things of
interest. The Triggers are relevant for all markets. Its just very sensitive times for traders. See
Chart 6, study the text. We move into Big Trigger area, and can expect some major event.
Sorry Chart 10-12 were not properly updated last week.
Update [April 20th 2010]: I have pulled the Seasonal Cycle, chart 11 back some/
calibrated it, and I might adjust it even more with experience. Its daily calculated cycles, but
might kick in on average on a particular time during 24 hours. This is a very important cycle,
and should always be considered up against the other cycles.
Update [April 18th 2010]: This coming week it is worth watching Chart 2 and 5, which
exclude the overnight session. The Raw Numbers, see chart 8 & 9 points down, and for the
most part the Intraday Cycle has a negative pulse inside the US-Session, three days while
two are mixed, and the trend is definitely negative. There is no guaranty what will happen, but
for the future its worth looking for clues in this particular chart series, when both long and
short opportunities might arise. Do major sell offs come when the intra day cycle is negative
in consecutive US-sessions, say three sessions? Often such events can be over in 72 hours.
See the last update, as I have included the Raw Numbers, I have also included the Seasonal
Cycle in a similar manner/ Chart 11. There can be too many variables, but I will stop here.
All these cycles can be studied longer term in other chart sections on this web site. Over time
its up to any interested observers of these factors and others (technical) to spot bullish or
bearish opportunities. Not that any such advice is given. This is like counting cards, playing
blackjack (21) in Vegas, what are the odds? Whats your betting average? I am amazed by
such smart people, who can calculate the odds, and place bets with discipline figuring they
come out ahead. It should be much easier in the market. Card counters has to pretend they
are tourists.
Update [April 16th 2010]: A final chart 10 in the Intra Day Chart Series, which will bring
The Intraday Cycle and the Raw Number Closer. My notion is that following these two cycle
presentations over time will give a powerful tool. Especially in concert with traditional
technical indicators.
Update [April 14th 2010]: Again with hindsight for the sake of future interpretations, see
chart 8, the grey bold face horizontal line, from 3/19 and 3 weeks + forward. The market did
not actually gain ground, an effect from decline in the Raw Numbers, holding back the trend.
Then we moved up form last week, as the Raw Numbers suggested. This can indicate an
established trend, and not enough downward pressure to turn the super tanker. The question
now is if we could get some kind of pull back the next four weeks +, not enough to break the
trend, but for a possible final take off into the late summer from May. Of course this is not a
prediction, just an interpretive discussion, do undertake an unbiased assessment!! Still in mid
May we meet with a considerable positive wave/ wall in The Raw Numbers, see chart 3. Its
possible a minor bear trap can evolve the next four week. In May we will also move into the
Big Trigger, for more details, see chart 7. As can be seen last time the market took off at the
Big Trigger. Read more about Trigger Cycle here, section 5.
See also comment here of April 9th 2010. regarding the May 2010 wave.
Update [March 28th 2010]: The regular comment page is updated.
Update [March 24th 2010]: See banner add above for Wave 59. Last year I gave them a
free link, because some visitors said their software was very compatible with Cycle-LT/
Intraday Cycle . It fell out with the new format. I just found out about their affiliate program,
and have signed up.
Update [March 21st 2010]: NB: DO REFRESH THE CHARTS DAILY. Have
extended Chart 8, and there is a spike in the Raw Numbers lasting three days from 04/09 to
04/13/10 [weekend excluded]. That is not enough turn the tide. As can be seen recently Raw
Numbers had a left hand slope lasting weeks, and the market rallied, a three days spike
should not have similar effect, as rule of interpretation.
Trigger Cycle also extended, and previous chart posted on the historic file, including recent
Raw Numbers.
Update [March 5th 2010]: Refer to yesterdays update. I have added a 9th charts to the
main Intraday Chart Series, to have everything in one place. A study with the Raw Numbers
in a seven days week perspective, with Intraday Cycle Proper instead of AVE24.
Because the weekend create a slightly different AVE24. This gives a better view of intraday
in relation to the Raw Numbers, which now approaches a major intermediate reversal.
Update [March 4th 2010]: The Big Picture Intraday is upgraded with Raw Numbers in a
seven days week perspective, with better trend channels, including the Seasonal Cycle.
Update [March 3rd 2010]: The regular comment page is updated.
Update [March 2nd 2010]: The important now is that is a disagreement with the Raw
Numbers and the Intraday Cycle, see Chart 8. For Raw Numbers its just as spike. Study
Cycle-LT144Z Chart 3 and the Closer View.
Update [February 21st 2010]: The Intraday Cycle Current Week comes out as the most
popular, no contest really. I have posted the first Intraday Historic Chart, and the more
"nerdy visitors" might find valuable clues taking a daily look at this page. Its hard to take in a
lot of history, but if one look at the eleven single cycles daily, with the Intraday Cycle Proper
as background, one might learn about their returns. When they agree with the sum total,
could give clues. Over all to improve the timing of The Intraday Cycle, in relation to the
market, why it might be leading, lagging or even be bridged by the price some times. Those
who follows other disciplines might also find clues, when it comes to established wave
lengths. ZAB and ZBB are central, but the nine others can trigger events as well.
Update [February 18th 2010]: The regular comment page is updated.
Update [February 17th 2010]: Again my comment is based on hindsight, and its purpose is
only to develop interpretive skills for the future. I overlooked this factor in last weeks
comment. The strength of a wave can often be understood by calculation the area [cm2] of a
wave, based on hight and width, after drawing an imaginary base line. Here I will refer to
Chart 4A & 4B. This might explain why cycles overshoot, why we get divergences, all
energy must be exhausted before it can reverse, and the area of the wave might be a gauge of
how much there is to be spent. It might be possible to calculate an approx. price objective
on the basis of this. Again just an idea. It always useful to scan all eleven single cycles for
clues, when the price might break.
Update [February 14th 2010]: For new comers the page to start at is:
[http://www.cyclelt.com/predictions.html]
from there this Intraday Comment Page can be accessed, including Last Weeks Intraday
Action, and detailed studies of the Single Cycles that makes up the Intraday Chart series. In
addition the Long Term charts for Dow Jones, Gold, Crude Oil, Bonds, US Dollar and
Crude Oil. Normally the weekly calibration of the Intraday Charts take place early
Sunday US time.
[ LAST weeks action] See the bottom/ 4th chart, three single cycles came off extremes, and
bottomed in tune with the price, just to end stronger.
Key this coming intraday week is that we shift higher in a very sudden way, which normally
doesn't translate into the same impressive change in price. Its more like shifting the grip. Then
Monday is not a trading day, so most of the bullish effect could be wasted. As can be seen a
chart with the Single Cycles is inserted into the regular chart series - Chart 3B. To study them
in detail go to this page. Again if one starts here: [http://www.cyclelt.com/predictions.html] all
the material can be easily accessed. It seems to wise to refresh the charts when entering on a
new day, often yesterdays state of affairs seem to come up many times.
Be advised that this web site can be reached through a second domain:
[marketcycleinfo.com]
Update [February 12th 2010]: I would like to bring the attention the very last chart in this
series, in relation to Thursdays strength. The Intraday Cycle, which is the sum of eleven
cycles [with some internal weighting] had a positive bias Thursday, but if one look at the total
mix of cycles in the last chart, one can see that three cycles were close to extreme values
during the US - Session.. Which one will also see, by studying the entire chart series, and
decide which one.
Likewise early in the week several single cycles went towards extremes. Even if others might
counter, the sum [Intraday Cycle] in both cases had a positive bias. So as the a new week
starts one should look at this Total Mix Chart, single cycles might give added information.
Yes, also take a look during the week, it might improve the interpretation and timing. If
visitors is really interested, study both chart series + the weekly Data Series.
Update [February 11th 2010]: A new Intraday Page for those who really want to go
deeper into the subject matter of the forces effecting the stock market over hours, rather then
days and weeks. Here the historic data will be stored, and should be valuable for all
interested in cycles.
Update [February 10th 2010]: I was asked to show a detailed chart for coming Tuesday,
since Monday is closed: Intraday Today. In the regular chart series Chart 4B, has a trading
band, its an experiment. It will not be like a Bollinger Band for price, but it might just give a
feel; if the market is overextended or in balance.
Update [February 7th 2010]: See e-mail below. I have yielded to the request, and it was
actually a brilliant idea and thanks to C. This enable interested visitors more closely to srudy
what might happen, when the trading resume in Asia Mondays, then Europe and eventually in
North America.
Update [May 2nd 2010]: I have added changes for the Trigger Cycles, see Chart 6, 7A,
7B and 7C. Chart 6 shows the one in the daily graph, its an approximation, and since I have
been able to calculate it hourly, it will be displayed in Chart 7A, they can differ up to 24
hours give and take, for reasons explained in other updates. The one in 7A I call the Real
Trigger. I introduce two new Triggers, see text inside Chart 7B and 7C. Here the crossing of
the 50% line can also trigger events. As always this is for the "nerds," who might find things of
interest. The Triggers are relevant for all markets. Its just very sensitive times for traders. See
Chart 6, study the text. We move into Big Trigger area, and can expect some major event.
Sorry Chart 10-12 were not properly updated last week.
Update [April 20th 2010]: I have pulled the Seasonal Cycle, chart 11 back some/
calibrated it, and I might adjust it even more with experience. Its daily calculated cycles, but
might kick in on average on a particular time during 24 hours. This is a very important cycle,
and should always be considered up against the other cycles.
Update [April 18th 2010]: This coming week it is worth watching Chart 2 and 5, which
exclude the overnight session. The Raw Numbers, see chart 8 & 9 points down, and for the
most part the Intraday Cycle has a negative pulse inside the US-Session, three days while
two are mixed, and the trend is definitely negative. There is no guaranty what will happen, but
for the future its worth looking for clues in this particular chart series, when both long and
short opportunities might arise. Do major sell offs come when the intra day cycle is negative
in consecutive US-sessions, say three sessions? Often such events can be over in 72 hours.
See the last update, as I have included the Raw Numbers, I have also included the Seasonal
Cycle in a similar manner/ Chart 11. There can be too many variables, but I will stop here.
All these cycles can be studied longer term in other chart sections on this web site. Over time
its up to any interested observers of these factors and others (technical) to spot bullish or
bearish opportunities. Not that any such advice is given. This is like counting cards, playing
blackjack (21) in Vegas, what are the odds? Whats your betting average? I am amazed by
such smart people, who can calculate the odds, and place bets with discipline figuring they
come out ahead. It should be much easier in the market. Card counters has to pretend they
are tourists.
Update [April 16th 2010]: A final chart 10 in the Intra Day Chart Series, which will bring
The Intraday Cycle and the Raw Number Closer. My notion is that following these two cycle
presentations over time will give a powerful tool. Especially in concert with traditional
technical indicators.
Update [April 14th 2010]: Again with hindsight for the sake of future interpretations, see
chart 8, the grey bold face horizontal line, from 3/19 and 3 weeks + forward. The market did
not actually gain ground, an effect from decline in the Raw Numbers, holding back the trend.
Then we moved up form last week, as the Raw Numbers suggested. This can indicate an
established trend, and not enough downward pressure to turn the super tanker. The question
now is if we could get some kind of pull back the next four weeks +, not enough to break the
trend, but for a possible final take off into the late summer from May. Of course this is not a
prediction, just an interpretive discussion, do undertake an unbiased assessment!! Still in mid
May we meet with a considerable positive wave/ wall in The Raw Numbers, see chart 3. Its
possible a minor bear trap can evolve the next four week. In May we will also move into the
Big Trigger, for more details, see chart 7. As can be seen last time the market took off at the
Big Trigger. Read more about Trigger Cycle here, section 5.
See also comment here of April 9th 2010. regarding the May 2010 wave.
Update [March 28th 2010]: The regular comment page is updated.
Update [March 24th 2010]: See banner add above for Wave 59. Last year I gave them a
free link, because some visitors said their software was very compatible with Cycle-LT/
Intraday Cycle . It fell out with the new format. I just found out about their affiliate program,
and have signed up.
Update [March 21st 2010]: NB: DO REFRESH THE CHARTS DAILY. Have
extended Chart 8, and there is a spike in the Raw Numbers lasting three days from 04/09 to
04/13/10 [weekend excluded]. That is not enough turn the tide. As can be seen recently Raw
Numbers had a left hand slope lasting weeks, and the market rallied, a three days spike
should not have similar effect, as rule of interpretation.
Trigger Cycle also extended, and previous chart posted on the historic file, including recent
Raw Numbers.
Update [March 5th 2010]: Refer to yesterdays update. I have added a 9th charts to the
main Intraday Chart Series, to have everything in one place. A study with the Raw Numbers
in a seven days week perspective, with Intraday Cycle Proper instead of AVE24.
Because the weekend create a slightly different AVE24. This gives a better view of intraday
in relation to the Raw Numbers, which now approaches a major intermediate reversal.
Update [March 4th 2010]: The Big Picture Intraday is upgraded with Raw Numbers in a
seven days week perspective, with better trend channels, including the Seasonal Cycle.
Update [March 3rd 2010]: The regular comment page is updated.
Update [March 2nd 2010]: The important now is that is a disagreement with the Raw
Numbers and the Intraday Cycle, see Chart 8. For Raw Numbers its just as spike. Study
Cycle-LT144Z Chart 3 and the Closer View.
Update [February 21st 2010]: The Intraday Cycle Current Week comes out as the most
popular, no contest really. I have posted the first Intraday Historic Chart, and the more
"nerdy visitors" might find valuable clues taking a daily look at this page. Its hard to take in a
lot of history, but if one look at the eleven single cycles daily, with the Intraday Cycle Proper
as background, one might learn about their returns. When they agree with the sum total,
could give clues. Over all to improve the timing of The Intraday Cycle, in relation to the
market, why it might be leading, lagging or even be bridged by the price some times. Those
who follows other disciplines might also find clues, when it comes to established wave
lengths. ZAB and ZBB are central, but the nine others can trigger events as well.
Update [February 18th 2010]: The regular comment page is updated.
Update [February 17th 2010]: Again my comment is based on hindsight, and its purpose is
only to develop interpretive skills for the future. I overlooked this factor in last weeks
comment. The strength of a wave can often be understood by calculation the area [cm2] of a
wave, based on hight and width, after drawing an imaginary base line. Here I will refer to
Chart 4A & 4B. This might explain why cycles overshoot, why we get divergences, all
energy must be exhausted before it can reverse, and the area of the wave might be a gauge of
how much there is to be spent. It might be possible to calculate an approx. price objective
on the basis of this. Again just an idea. It always useful to scan all eleven single cycles for
clues, when the price might break.
Update [February 14th 2010]: For new comers the page to start at is:
[http://www.cyclelt.com/predictions.html]
from there this Intraday Comment Page can be accessed, including Last Weeks Intraday
Action, and detailed studies of the Single Cycles that makes up the Intraday Chart series. In
addition the Long Term charts for Dow Jones, Gold, Crude Oil, Bonds, US Dollar and
Crude Oil. Normally the weekly calibration of the Intraday Charts take place early
Sunday US time.
[ LAST weeks action] See the bottom/ 4th chart, three single cycles came off extremes, and
bottomed in tune with the price, just to end stronger.
Key this coming intraday week is that we shift higher in a very sudden way, which normally
doesn't translate into the same impressive change in price. Its more like shifting the grip. Then
Monday is not a trading day, so most of the bullish effect could be wasted. As can be seen a
chart with the Single Cycles is inserted into the regular chart series - Chart 3B. To study them
in detail go to this page. Again if one starts here: [http://www.cyclelt.com/predictions.html] all
the material can be easily accessed. It seems to wise to refresh the charts when entering on a
new day, often yesterdays state of affairs seem to come up many times.
Be advised that this web site can be reached through a second domain:
[marketcycleinfo.com]
Update [February 12th 2010]: I would like to bring the attention the very last chart in this
series, in relation to Thursdays strength. The Intraday Cycle, which is the sum of eleven
cycles [with some internal weighting] had a positive bias Thursday, but if one look at the total
mix of cycles in the last chart, one can see that three cycles were close to extreme values
during the US - Session.. Which one will also see, by studying the entire chart series, and
decide which one.
Likewise early in the week several single cycles went towards extremes. Even if others might
counter, the sum [Intraday Cycle] in both cases had a positive bias. So as the a new week
starts one should look at this Total Mix Chart, single cycles might give added information.
Yes, also take a look during the week, it might improve the interpretation and timing. If
visitors is really interested, study both chart series + the weekly Data Series.
Update [February 11th 2010]: A new Intraday Page for those who really want to go
deeper into the subject matter of the forces effecting the stock market over hours, rather then
days and weeks. Here the historic data will be stored, and should be valuable for all
interested in cycles.
Update [February 10th 2010]: I was asked to show a detailed chart for coming Tuesday,
since Monday is closed: Intraday Today. In the regular chart series Chart 4B, has a trading
band, its an experiment. It will not be like a Bollinger Band for price, but it might just give a
feel; if the market is overextended or in balance.
Update [February 7th 2010]: See e-mail below. I have yielded to the request, and it was
actually a brilliant idea and thanks to C. This enable interested visitors more closely to srudy
what might happen, when the trading resume in Asia Mondays, then Europe and eventually in
North America.