| Rules of Interpretation for Cycle -LT: See also the [Introduction Page] |
Cycle - LT/ [US - Stock Market Cycles] Rules of Interpretation for Cycle -LT.......
[1] Raw Numbers Proper]: This is this most important indicator for the long term
US-Stock Market/ Dow Jones Ind. Average, and form the basis for [Cycle-LT144Z], which
combine the cyclical studies of Dow Jones Ind. Average into one predictive cycle.
CHART 1 shows all the indicators lumped together, then in the subsequent charts the
predictive charts for Dow Jones Ind. Average are separated, and will now be explained.
CHART 2 - displays the new AVE34, a smoothed 34 days moving average of the Raw
Numbers based the Dow Jones price history - shifted left, then calibrated relative to key
events in the past. In the commodity charts AVE34 is also applied.
AVE34 can give an impression of both detailed swings and longer trends of Dow Jones Ind.
Average or S&P500 for that sake. Therefor a trend channel is drawn, and the longer average
COMB is superimposed in dark green for comparison. For the future its for anyone to
interpret, and to use ones intuition, with the historical references and of course technical tools
as new price history become available. Its a matter of policy not to offer interpretations, but to
present the material in such a manner that any interested visitor can make his/ her own
interpretation, and prediction of Dow Jones, S&P500 or NASDAQ etc, as long as this web
site is updated.
CHART 3 - is a ZOOMED chart, where the Raw Numbers is displayed in a 15 months
perspective, with AVE34 and the Averages called COMB, more further down.
CHART 4 - is a ZOOMED chart in a 4 months + perspective, with Raw Numbers and
AVE34 only.
CHART 5 - represent the Raw Numbers from 2000 through January 31st 2012, with the
general trend lines - different from the trend channel drawn for AVE34. The Raw Numbers
are a sum of 15 underlying single cycles. Its the same formulae used for the commodities, but
where the price history is shorter then for Dow. For more comments study [Introduction],
where Raw Numbers Extra is discussed, the same apply for Raw Numbers Proper.
Left hand rising slopes in the Raw Numbers, only interrupted with brief declining spikes are
bullish. While declining right hand slopes, and brief left hand upward spikes are bearish.
CHART 6 - shows an Average named COMB; based on the Raw Numbers, but through a
complex sum of averages with few and many units, also with certain smoothing techniques, as
with AVE34. More about the interpretation later.
CHART 7 - same as CHART 6, but the price is represented with an 89 day average of Dow
Jones Ind. Average, shifted 41 days left. The purpose is catch the actual long term trend and
swings of Dow Jones, to compare it with the cycle/ COMB. The average is used in the
[Cycle-LT144Z] presentation. Here are the charts divided up into five - two years of
[Historic Charts], for a closer view. Note that parts of 2004 and 2005 seem inverted. The
general trend came out right, but some of the swings are inverted. This "problems" never seem
to away, but it seems like a few of the 15 single cycles rules, while the sum total come out
inverted.
Interpretation: As stated elsewhere, the Cycle -LT indicators should be treated as a
Stochastic or other oscillators, but of course, this is an attempt to say something about the
future, Stochastic is certain history, but the way the Cycle - LT Indicators are calculated
makes the comparison with oscillators relevant. This idea has been refined in [Cycle-LT144Z].
The market moved up to from March 2003 to 2007, and because COMB [other indicators
say the same] did not break down under 5000 [50%] line decisively, the market kept moving
up. Its like the divergence seen in the Stochastic. Sure - this is hindsight, but an attempt to
establish rules of interpretation for the future.
The reason the rally from March 2009, became as strong as it did, might be the width of the
cycle. It might be seen better here. Likewise the trend from 2003 to 2007, it has width, and
stayed above the 50% line.To pin point reversal dates go to the : [Data Series].
[2] Raw Numbers Extra]: The same apply as above [1/ Raw Numbers Proper], the
difference between the two is: As we more forward in time, recent Dow Jones price history is
included. On the other hand Raw Numbers Proper above, looks like it would in 1999, in the
same manner [Cycle-LT144Z], since only data available in 1999, has been used as input in
the algorithm. The Raw Numbers Extra could for example be kept unchanged through 2009.
Then make a new Database of Probabilities, and project from 01/01/2010 and add to the
past, and it will remain a true prediction also form 2000 - it just takes benefit of new price
history. The price history for say 2009, can be relevant for 2010 - the way the method
works. From this version, Dow Jones Ind. Index is displayed with the [Transportation Index].
This is relevant for those who follow Dow Theory. This version is included in: [Raw Numbers
CLOSER VIEW], also referred as the Principal Predictive Tool on the [Introduction Page].
Here charts for all series is presented in one place. Those who like to keep it simple, might
just pay attention to this presentation or the even simpler presentation: [Cycle-LT144Z].
[3] The Big Picture]: The basis for these Indicators is the same Raw Numbers Proper
discussed above, but averages with more units is applied. The details here are off less
relevance, then for those studies under Section [1 & 2] - its an attempt to study trends lasting
a decade or more. Referring to the Stochastic Rule, mentioned elsewhere, it could have been
assumed in 1996 that the market would continue higher to 1999-2000, notwithstanding the
scary time in the summer and fall of 1998, and the mini crash of October 1997.
Its very interesting - because in 1996 it was the first time a version of the Raw Numbers were
generated. It was hard to believe that the market would keep going to 1999-2000 [I was
also a natural born bear, when it came to the market]. Then the Greenspan irrational
exuberance speech. Still Cycle-LT seems to get it right, in the end. Even in the plain Raw
Numbers there was Mount Everest ahead in 1999, reflected in the peak in Chart 1, 3 and 4 in
the Big Picture.
The Stochastic Rule might have foreseen no real breakdown before 2001, as oscillators might
weaken [or strengthen], while the price keep moving up or resist a reversal at tops or bottoms
- due to the much talked about divergence. The same rule should apply for 2003-2007, and
for all of its history. For this reason it should be natural to assume that by 2011 the market
will see lower levels. How low, is for anyone to figure out.
[4] The Seasonal Cycle]: This cycle represent a pure statistic of how Dow Jones or the
US-Stock Market has behaved through the regular calendar year, since 1885 up to recently.
It is presented in two versions, and the difference lies only in that the sensitive version, uses
daily closes, while the other version uses a moving average of the price history [Dow] during
the test. Of course every year does not transpire in the same manner, but while looking at the
other Cycle-LT Indicators, one should consider the Seasonal Factor. Any interested visitors
should observe it for the duration of a year. It is not baked into any of the other cycles, but if
it agrees with the others cycles, it can add certainty to the over all analysis.
It does indicate that September and October is the worst months, but January and February
can be weak months as well - after its best season from October through December, see
white trend line. From December 21st to the end of the year seems very strong. Then sell in
May and go away, should be supported by this test. The trend channel is very tentative.
Inside the [Chart Series] find a table with explanatory text on the right hand side. See from the
table that from June 26th every year through the month there is a strong positive bias [jump] -
towards July 4th seem to release a good feeling.
Here excerpts from my Update [December 21st 2009]: Let it first be stated that this
method does not rely on any ancient Astrological concepts, but pure statistics, everyone who
would uses the same scientific raw data and my [proprietary] algorithm would arrive at the
same results/ Cycle-LT Indicators. Still we all know that the "Suns Orbit" [Geocentric] is
repeated yearly. At the same time I will direct your attention to the interesting subject of the
[Galactic Center] - often linked to events predicted in 2012.
The Sun was conjunct this longitudinal point/ degree in Sagittarius late Friday [12/18/2009 -
it happens yearly on the same date]. The Zoomed Chart shows - in concert with the two first
charts - that at this time Dow enters its strongest phase [thought there is an extreme spike
April 12th], and actually has a tendency to collapse, when the market opens after New Year.
This effect is not baked into the Intraday Cycle or the Raw Numbers. So its never known
how it will pan out. Its should merely be pointed out, that investors/ traders should pay
attention to it, and do study the same part in historic charts for Dow Ind. Average. It simply
says that the Seasonal Cycle, contributes a considerable positive effect from December 21st
and the rest of December, but must compete with other cycles, with different biases every
year. In side the [Chart Series] find a table with explanatory text on the right hand side.
The Seasonal Cycle is found on a daily basis on the same page as the [Trigger Cycle]. The
one on this page use will 2009 as sample. The table is relevant for every year, but the data
can be found here for both [Seasonal Representations].
[5] The Trigger Cycle]: This cycle has relevance for all markets, there is one lasting
approx. two weeks from bottom-top-bottom, and an overlay lasting approx. 102 days. The
Bigger Trigger might react within 7-10 days. Traders and investors tend to be become edgy
around the world and in all markets around the Trigger Dates. Do study the history. Often we
1) see a reversal, 2) acceleration towards the Trigger Dates and a pause, 3) or acceleration
from the Trigger Date, even without changing direction. Nothing is certain, but interested
visitors might find clues over time, also in relation to the other indicators on account of the
Trigger Cycles. If Raw Numbers points up close to the Bigger Trigger, that might be the
result, it triggers a rally. It is included in several of the other chart series, including Intraday for
a close up, see Chart 5 & 6 here. Remember it might effect Stock Markets around the
world, and commodities - in addition to the US - Stock Market.
[6] The Intraday Cycle]: A seperate Interpretation Page for the Intraday Cycle is found
here.
It should be self explanatory. Its like a Universe in itself, but eventually the longer cycles will
overrule the shorter. Still the Intraday Cycles should manifest themselves over hours
regardless, but the longer cycles sets the trend. Even in a crash season, minor cycles do
manifest, especially in mature markets like the American, with all kinds of instruments,
representing both bullish and bearish interests. Outlawing short selling is maybe the worst thing
one can do to stabilise markets, its like outlawing bad weather. In some countries, which
made it illegal, markets act like an elevator car with a broken wire, and no safety breaks -
imagine that feeling. A case in point; the tin market in the 80ties, that for years had been kept
up artificially by the stock buffer manager - it collapsed in minutes, when he run out of
liquidity. This to state that free markets consists of cycles upon cycles, study everything from a
tick chart to a monthly chart - as above, so below. Markets has no life out there on their own,
they are reflections of human minds, and eventually of The Collective Mind.
If one study [Big Picture Intraday], it will normally stay within the trend channel, and it will not
be obvious that the bigger cycles can effect a big move. The Intraday Cycle though might be
involved trigger a big move, but this particular swing in the cycle might look quite insignificant.
[The Seasonal Cycle for Dow Jones] can also act as a trigger.
[7] Commodities]: This chart series is put together as a study of Gold and the US-Dollar,
including Newmont Mining, which seems to do better as a "forecaster" than Gold -for Gold and the
Swiss Franc Future, which moves in tandem with the metal. The same with Crude, it should
reflect on both Gold and USD. With a relative short price history the crude market shows great
promise - relevant to all energy markets. From 1978 to 1986 Heating Oil is used, then the NYMEX
Light Sweet Crude, which became an instant success, robbing the OPEC cartel of control over the
oil market.
These markets all suffer compared with the Cycle-LT pertaining to the US-Stock Market. Here the
active daily closing prices history extends back to 1885. The Bretton Wood period "robbed" us
from a modern cyclical history for Gold and the Currencies - up to 1972.
I have seen a chart online of Homestake Mining extending way back, but he web site owner would
not sell the price history, so if anyone have the price history of a major mining stock for most of
last century - I would be interested. There is nothing more to say about commodities, these are the
same Raw Numbers as discussed above. A long term study for [Newmont Mining] is offered, and
here the new AVE34 is added, same as in [Raw Numbers Proper & COMB]. This NEM chart
might speak volumes about commodity and resource stocks far into this decade.
[8] 10 Year Bond Yields]: Finally Bonds. The regular Raw Numbers never worked for
this market, even with a price history back to 1962. Then 65 different cycles were lumped
together - longer and shorter cycles. The result pleased me. For the first time I post these
special Raw Numbers for Bond Yields. Still the Averages are the most important, the trend in
the Raw Numbers can be confusing, still they can often catch minor moves. The recent rally
started early, and the Raw Numbers might explain it. Again its for anyone interested to study
the material and draw their own conclusion. THIS IS THE NEW POLICY!
The duration of this service will depend on increased interest, but under any circumstances
it can be terminated without prior warning. This is a free service, and the publishing has to a
large extent been motivated over the last ten years by the fact it has given an incentive to
develop the Cycle-LT method further.
Final Word:
So with these presentations, interested visitors should look for clues, in
concerts with whatever other methods are available, and as stated I will not
offer specific predictions. I will in the near future refine this text, and keep
everyone posted on this page.
Disclaimer: The charts or any comments herein are not to be considered
recommendations to buy or sell financial instruments or their derivatives. Repeat of
previous successes for The CYCLE - LT, can not be guarantied.
[Return to Stock Market Chart Page]
US-Stock Market/ Dow Jones Ind. Average, and form the basis for [Cycle-LT144Z], which
combine the cyclical studies of Dow Jones Ind. Average into one predictive cycle.
CHART 1 shows all the indicators lumped together, then in the subsequent charts the
predictive charts for Dow Jones Ind. Average are separated, and will now be explained.
CHART 2 - displays the new AVE34, a smoothed 34 days moving average of the Raw
Numbers based the Dow Jones price history - shifted left, then calibrated relative to key
events in the past. In the commodity charts AVE34 is also applied.
AVE34 can give an impression of both detailed swings and longer trends of Dow Jones Ind.
Average or S&P500 for that sake. Therefor a trend channel is drawn, and the longer average
COMB is superimposed in dark green for comparison. For the future its for anyone to
interpret, and to use ones intuition, with the historical references and of course technical tools
as new price history become available. Its a matter of policy not to offer interpretations, but to
present the material in such a manner that any interested visitor can make his/ her own
interpretation, and prediction of Dow Jones, S&P500 or NASDAQ etc, as long as this web
site is updated.
CHART 3 - is a ZOOMED chart, where the Raw Numbers is displayed in a 15 months
perspective, with AVE34 and the Averages called COMB, more further down.
CHART 4 - is a ZOOMED chart in a 4 months + perspective, with Raw Numbers and
AVE34 only.
CHART 5 - represent the Raw Numbers from 2000 through January 31st 2012, with the
general trend lines - different from the trend channel drawn for AVE34. The Raw Numbers
are a sum of 15 underlying single cycles. Its the same formulae used for the commodities, but
where the price history is shorter then for Dow. For more comments study [Introduction],
where Raw Numbers Extra is discussed, the same apply for Raw Numbers Proper.
Left hand rising slopes in the Raw Numbers, only interrupted with brief declining spikes are
bullish. While declining right hand slopes, and brief left hand upward spikes are bearish.
CHART 6 - shows an Average named COMB; based on the Raw Numbers, but through a
complex sum of averages with few and many units, also with certain smoothing techniques, as
with AVE34. More about the interpretation later.
CHART 7 - same as CHART 6, but the price is represented with an 89 day average of Dow
Jones Ind. Average, shifted 41 days left. The purpose is catch the actual long term trend and
swings of Dow Jones, to compare it with the cycle/ COMB. The average is used in the
[Cycle-LT144Z] presentation. Here are the charts divided up into five - two years of
[Historic Charts], for a closer view. Note that parts of 2004 and 2005 seem inverted. The
general trend came out right, but some of the swings are inverted. This "problems" never seem
to away, but it seems like a few of the 15 single cycles rules, while the sum total come out
inverted.
Interpretation: As stated elsewhere, the Cycle -LT indicators should be treated as a
Stochastic or other oscillators, but of course, this is an attempt to say something about the
future, Stochastic is certain history, but the way the Cycle - LT Indicators are calculated
makes the comparison with oscillators relevant. This idea has been refined in [Cycle-LT144Z].
The market moved up to from March 2003 to 2007, and because COMB [other indicators
say the same] did not break down under 5000 [50%] line decisively, the market kept moving
up. Its like the divergence seen in the Stochastic. Sure - this is hindsight, but an attempt to
establish rules of interpretation for the future.
The reason the rally from March 2009, became as strong as it did, might be the width of the
cycle. It might be seen better here. Likewise the trend from 2003 to 2007, it has width, and
stayed above the 50% line.To pin point reversal dates go to the : [Data Series].
[2] Raw Numbers Extra]: The same apply as above [1/ Raw Numbers Proper], the
difference between the two is: As we more forward in time, recent Dow Jones price history is
included. On the other hand Raw Numbers Proper above, looks like it would in 1999, in the
same manner [Cycle-LT144Z], since only data available in 1999, has been used as input in
the algorithm. The Raw Numbers Extra could for example be kept unchanged through 2009.
Then make a new Database of Probabilities, and project from 01/01/2010 and add to the
past, and it will remain a true prediction also form 2000 - it just takes benefit of new price
history. The price history for say 2009, can be relevant for 2010 - the way the method
works. From this version, Dow Jones Ind. Index is displayed with the [Transportation Index].
This is relevant for those who follow Dow Theory. This version is included in: [Raw Numbers
CLOSER VIEW], also referred as the Principal Predictive Tool on the [Introduction Page].
Here charts for all series is presented in one place. Those who like to keep it simple, might
just pay attention to this presentation or the even simpler presentation: [Cycle-LT144Z].
[3] The Big Picture]: The basis for these Indicators is the same Raw Numbers Proper
discussed above, but averages with more units is applied. The details here are off less
relevance, then for those studies under Section [1 & 2] - its an attempt to study trends lasting
a decade or more. Referring to the Stochastic Rule, mentioned elsewhere, it could have been
assumed in 1996 that the market would continue higher to 1999-2000, notwithstanding the
scary time in the summer and fall of 1998, and the mini crash of October 1997.
Its very interesting - because in 1996 it was the first time a version of the Raw Numbers were
generated. It was hard to believe that the market would keep going to 1999-2000 [I was
also a natural born bear, when it came to the market]. Then the Greenspan irrational
exuberance speech. Still Cycle-LT seems to get it right, in the end. Even in the plain Raw
Numbers there was Mount Everest ahead in 1999, reflected in the peak in Chart 1, 3 and 4 in
the Big Picture.
The Stochastic Rule might have foreseen no real breakdown before 2001, as oscillators might
weaken [or strengthen], while the price keep moving up or resist a reversal at tops or bottoms
- due to the much talked about divergence. The same rule should apply for 2003-2007, and
for all of its history. For this reason it should be natural to assume that by 2011 the market
will see lower levels. How low, is for anyone to figure out.
[4] The Seasonal Cycle]: This cycle represent a pure statistic of how Dow Jones or the
US-Stock Market has behaved through the regular calendar year, since 1885 up to recently.
It is presented in two versions, and the difference lies only in that the sensitive version, uses
daily closes, while the other version uses a moving average of the price history [Dow] during
the test. Of course every year does not transpire in the same manner, but while looking at the
other Cycle-LT Indicators, one should consider the Seasonal Factor. Any interested visitors
should observe it for the duration of a year. It is not baked into any of the other cycles, but if
it agrees with the others cycles, it can add certainty to the over all analysis.
It does indicate that September and October is the worst months, but January and February
can be weak months as well - after its best season from October through December, see
white trend line. From December 21st to the end of the year seems very strong. Then sell in
May and go away, should be supported by this test. The trend channel is very tentative.
Inside the [Chart Series] find a table with explanatory text on the right hand side. See from the
table that from June 26th every year through the month there is a strong positive bias [jump] -
towards July 4th seem to release a good feeling.
Here excerpts from my Update [December 21st 2009]: Let it first be stated that this
method does not rely on any ancient Astrological concepts, but pure statistics, everyone who
would uses the same scientific raw data and my [proprietary] algorithm would arrive at the
same results/ Cycle-LT Indicators. Still we all know that the "Suns Orbit" [Geocentric] is
repeated yearly. At the same time I will direct your attention to the interesting subject of the
[Galactic Center] - often linked to events predicted in 2012.
The Sun was conjunct this longitudinal point/ degree in Sagittarius late Friday [12/18/2009 -
it happens yearly on the same date]. The Zoomed Chart shows - in concert with the two first
charts - that at this time Dow enters its strongest phase [thought there is an extreme spike
April 12th], and actually has a tendency to collapse, when the market opens after New Year.
This effect is not baked into the Intraday Cycle or the Raw Numbers. So its never known
how it will pan out. Its should merely be pointed out, that investors/ traders should pay
attention to it, and do study the same part in historic charts for Dow Ind. Average. It simply
says that the Seasonal Cycle, contributes a considerable positive effect from December 21st
and the rest of December, but must compete with other cycles, with different biases every
year. In side the [Chart Series] find a table with explanatory text on the right hand side.
The Seasonal Cycle is found on a daily basis on the same page as the [Trigger Cycle]. The
one on this page use will 2009 as sample. The table is relevant for every year, but the data
can be found here for both [Seasonal Representations].
[5] The Trigger Cycle]: This cycle has relevance for all markets, there is one lasting
approx. two weeks from bottom-top-bottom, and an overlay lasting approx. 102 days. The
Bigger Trigger might react within 7-10 days. Traders and investors tend to be become edgy
around the world and in all markets around the Trigger Dates. Do study the history. Often we
1) see a reversal, 2) acceleration towards the Trigger Dates and a pause, 3) or acceleration
from the Trigger Date, even without changing direction. Nothing is certain, but interested
visitors might find clues over time, also in relation to the other indicators on account of the
Trigger Cycles. If Raw Numbers points up close to the Bigger Trigger, that might be the
result, it triggers a rally. It is included in several of the other chart series, including Intraday for
a close up, see Chart 5 & 6 here. Remember it might effect Stock Markets around the
world, and commodities - in addition to the US - Stock Market.
[6] The Intraday Cycle]: A seperate Interpretation Page for the Intraday Cycle is found
here.
It should be self explanatory. Its like a Universe in itself, but eventually the longer cycles will
overrule the shorter. Still the Intraday Cycles should manifest themselves over hours
regardless, but the longer cycles sets the trend. Even in a crash season, minor cycles do
manifest, especially in mature markets like the American, with all kinds of instruments,
representing both bullish and bearish interests. Outlawing short selling is maybe the worst thing
one can do to stabilise markets, its like outlawing bad weather. In some countries, which
made it illegal, markets act like an elevator car with a broken wire, and no safety breaks -
imagine that feeling. A case in point; the tin market in the 80ties, that for years had been kept
up artificially by the stock buffer manager - it collapsed in minutes, when he run out of
liquidity. This to state that free markets consists of cycles upon cycles, study everything from a
tick chart to a monthly chart - as above, so below. Markets has no life out there on their own,
they are reflections of human minds, and eventually of The Collective Mind.
If one study [Big Picture Intraday], it will normally stay within the trend channel, and it will not
be obvious that the bigger cycles can effect a big move. The Intraday Cycle though might be
involved trigger a big move, but this particular swing in the cycle might look quite insignificant.
[The Seasonal Cycle for Dow Jones] can also act as a trigger.
[7] Commodities]: This chart series is put together as a study of Gold and the US-Dollar,
including Newmont Mining, which seems to do better as a "forecaster" than Gold -for Gold and the
Swiss Franc Future, which moves in tandem with the metal. The same with Crude, it should
reflect on both Gold and USD. With a relative short price history the crude market shows great
promise - relevant to all energy markets. From 1978 to 1986 Heating Oil is used, then the NYMEX
Light Sweet Crude, which became an instant success, robbing the OPEC cartel of control over the
oil market.
These markets all suffer compared with the Cycle-LT pertaining to the US-Stock Market. Here the
active daily closing prices history extends back to 1885. The Bretton Wood period "robbed" us
from a modern cyclical history for Gold and the Currencies - up to 1972.
I have seen a chart online of Homestake Mining extending way back, but he web site owner would
not sell the price history, so if anyone have the price history of a major mining stock for most of
last century - I would be interested. There is nothing more to say about commodities, these are the
same Raw Numbers as discussed above. A long term study for [Newmont Mining] is offered, and
here the new AVE34 is added, same as in [Raw Numbers Proper & COMB]. This NEM chart
might speak volumes about commodity and resource stocks far into this decade.
[8] 10 Year Bond Yields]: Finally Bonds. The regular Raw Numbers never worked for
this market, even with a price history back to 1962. Then 65 different cycles were lumped
together - longer and shorter cycles. The result pleased me. For the first time I post these
special Raw Numbers for Bond Yields. Still the Averages are the most important, the trend in
the Raw Numbers can be confusing, still they can often catch minor moves. The recent rally
started early, and the Raw Numbers might explain it. Again its for anyone interested to study
the material and draw their own conclusion. THIS IS THE NEW POLICY!
The duration of this service will depend on increased interest, but under any circumstances
it can be terminated without prior warning. This is a free service, and the publishing has to a
large extent been motivated over the last ten years by the fact it has given an incentive to
develop the Cycle-LT method further.
Final Word:
So with these presentations, interested visitors should look for clues, in
concerts with whatever other methods are available, and as stated I will not
offer specific predictions. I will in the near future refine this text, and keep
everyone posted on this page.
Disclaimer: The charts or any comments herein are not to be considered
recommendations to buy or sell financial instruments or their derivatives. Repeat of
previous successes for The CYCLE - LT, can not be guarantied.
[Return to Stock Market Chart Page]
Introduction Comment of New Policy [January 4th 2010]:
I have upgraded all charts, and I will start a new policy of not offering any specific predictions.
Instead I will offer Rules of Interpretation here - in addition to what I call: [Introduction to
Cycle-LT]. Therefore I have removed all previous comments and will start from scratch. I will
keep refining these rules and explanations with experience, and put out a notice of any new
additions to these two pages.
Its an acknowledgment of several factors: 1) Its too easy to let my own bias effect the
interpretation, anyone must have noticed from the moment you are committed to a position
your mind/ brain gets transformed. 2) I have made errors in the past for this reason, and then to
predict the market is a tall order in the best of times, one should show a humble attitude, the
market will always outsmart you - if your convictions are too strong. 3) There are forces in the
market not represented by this method, and the method is of course not perfect. 4) Technical
factors do effect the market, and one can not be sure - at any time - when the cycles
presented here or elsewhere do represent the underlying forces correctly. Therefore one
should not be bound solely by the cycles. At times the technical picture is spot on, and it should
not hold back anyone, if the cyclical picture is not fulfilled. The cycles can lead, lag or itself not
be representing the underlying forces correctly. 5) I am pleased to learn that my "customers"
are predominately well educated and affluent, and might follow a series of other methods.
Indeed this is impression over the years [from April 1999], those who do stay are the more
experienced when it comes to cycles and various methods of market analysis. Therefore
Cycle-LT should just be one input. I do believe this is a wise policy, over time those paying
attention to the material presented on this web site, can develop their own interpretations - in
peace and quit. If they like to share ideas about Cycle-LT interpretations, I will be more then
pleased to post them here.
The duration of this service will depend on increased interest, but under any circumstances
it can be terminated without prior warning. This is a free service, and the publishing has to a
large extent been motivated over the last ten years by the fact it has given an incentive to
develop the Cycle-LT method further.
I have upgraded all charts, and I will start a new policy of not offering any specific predictions.
Instead I will offer Rules of Interpretation here - in addition to what I call: [Introduction to
Cycle-LT]. Therefore I have removed all previous comments and will start from scratch. I will
keep refining these rules and explanations with experience, and put out a notice of any new
additions to these two pages.
Its an acknowledgment of several factors: 1) Its too easy to let my own bias effect the
interpretation, anyone must have noticed from the moment you are committed to a position
your mind/ brain gets transformed. 2) I have made errors in the past for this reason, and then to
predict the market is a tall order in the best of times, one should show a humble attitude, the
market will always outsmart you - if your convictions are too strong. 3) There are forces in the
market not represented by this method, and the method is of course not perfect. 4) Technical
factors do effect the market, and one can not be sure - at any time - when the cycles
presented here or elsewhere do represent the underlying forces correctly. Therefore one
should not be bound solely by the cycles. At times the technical picture is spot on, and it should
not hold back anyone, if the cyclical picture is not fulfilled. The cycles can lead, lag or itself not
be representing the underlying forces correctly. 5) I am pleased to learn that my "customers"
are predominately well educated and affluent, and might follow a series of other methods.
Indeed this is impression over the years [from April 1999], those who do stay are the more
experienced when it comes to cycles and various methods of market analysis. Therefore
Cycle-LT should just be one input. I do believe this is a wise policy, over time those paying
attention to the material presented on this web site, can develop their own interpretations - in
peace and quit. If they like to share ideas about Cycle-LT interpretations, I will be more then
pleased to post them here.
The duration of this service will depend on increased interest, but under any circumstances
it can be terminated without prior warning. This is a free service, and the publishing has to a
large extent been motivated over the last ten years by the fact it has given an incentive to
develop the Cycle-LT method further.
| Content: [1] Raw Numbers Proper] - [2] Raw Numbers Extra] - [3] The Big Picture] [4] The Seasonal Cycle] - [5] The Trigger Cycle] - [6] The Intraday Cycle] [7] Commodities] - [8] 10 Year Bond Yields] Cycle-LT144Z: Based on these studies for Dow Jones; a final indicator is developed, and can be found here with separate [Explanatory Text]. Below all the studies of Dow Jones Industrial that has led to Cycle-LT144Z. Even if Cycle-LT144Z is arrived at through the Dow Jones price history, it should be relevant for S&P500, NASDAQ and all the other major Stock Market Indexes. SCROLL DOWN FOR MORE EXPLANATIONS. Updated: January 15th 2010 |