Update [March 5th 2010]: The Intraday Comment Page updated.
Update [March 3rd 2010]: On the Trigger- and Seasonal Page, I have posted a historic
study for the Seasonal Cycle [Sensitive Version] from 2000. If will give an instant impression
of the cycle for almost ten years, based on historic data from 1885.
Of course it does not repeat itself perfectly, but its worth paying attention to - while looking
at all other factors. Many seasoned commodity traders never buck the seasonal cycle. There
is Special Study, a table displaying every date of the year.
NB: The Intraday Charts are updated approx. half an hour before NYSE opens, so refresh
the charts. From my point; its seems like all charts must be refreshed to see the latest
movements in price.
Update [March 2nd 2010]: The important now is that is a disagreement with the Raw
Numbers and the Intraday Cycle, see Chart 8. For Raw Numbers its just as spike. Study
Cycle-LT144Z Chart 3 and the Closer View.
Update [February 21st 2010]: The Intraday Comment Page updated.
Update [February 18th 2010]: Let me write this on a slightly personal note, and partly out
of relief for having stopped offering predictions - it has cleared my own mind/ thinking. Its a
huge distraction, on top of being the worst kind of ego trip. During the wash out in the early
part of 2009, I kept looking at the Raw Numbers here - thinking the market should rally, with
all the experience I had with the indicator. Still with the noise, fear and hysteria out there, you
would start to think: OK - it will rally, but any weakness in the indicator will favour the
bearish camp. The rest is history, just the opposite transpired.
This thinking did not come from a rational point of view, for if you really are a contrarian, this
is the only rational thinking there is - in observing the market, but in silence. Contrarians
announcing their stance, can by definition not be contrarians, its just another ego trip, on top
of exposing your own disbelief in yourself. Its just like a politician trying to rally support.
Every expert opinion are like that, have you noticed how your mind change, when committed
to a position, when the fill is in? You cant "be trusted anymore." The veterans Market Vane,
always polled advisors, not the public, and they also speak after they are filled, including the
minority. Been there done that.
Be a contrarian, and shut up, and remember for a while the majority will be right, when the
super tanker is in motion. It takes time.
Being a contrarian is as demanding as becoming a true Zen Master, you simply have to
overcome emotionally driven thinking, and thats what makes it so difficult; that is what
99.99% are shouting from the roof tops. So I will rest my case, present the data and shut up.
I would watch CNBC and see that guests/ "experts" in studio, kept an eye on the Dow bug,
and modified or hedged their opinions in the course of the interview. A guy mailed me, told
me he was way ahead of me. Good for him, he does not publish or sent me a graph, just the
name of his algorithm. I am very happy for him, for to say anything about the future is a tall
order in the best of times.
So this just to reiterate my point of view: The format of this web site has been completed
recently, I have posted charts for historical reference, and this will be done for Intraday from
this weekend. Then its every man/ women for himself/ herself. I can guaranty the integrity of
the numbers, they are generated 200 % mechanically, and their merit is for anyone to assess.
Read my disclaimer, this is a free of charge service, I publish for my own personal reasons,
until they are no longer there. I will continue to write with hindsight, just to try develop some
general rules of interpretation, again for my own reasons. The publishing has been
instrumental in developing a 100% original method. Sure others do the same, I have just built
the algorithm without looking elsewhere, its all based on my own trial and error, which have
consumed countless hours unpaid labour.
Update [February 17th 2010]: The Intraday Comment Page updated.
Update [February 14th 2010]: The Intraday Comment Page updated.
Update [February 12th 2010]: The Intraday Comment Page updated.
Update [February 11th 2010]: A new Intraday Page for those who really want to go
deeper into the subject matter of the forces effecting the stock market over hours, rather then
days and weeks. Here the historic data will be stored, and should be valuable for all
interested in cycles.
Update [February 10th 2010]: I was asked to show a detailed chart for coming Tuesday,
since Monday is closed: Intraday Today. In the regular chart series Chart 4B, has a trading
band, its an experiment. It will not be like a Bollinger Band for price, but it might just give a
feel; if the market is overextended or in balance.
Update [February 5th 2010]: Dear Helge, I have been studying your intraday charts
since December last year and must thank you for so generously sharing your brilliant
forecasts with the world. Your work is more than impressive and the best part is that
you are able to remain so humble about your considerable achievements. So I thought
a note of thanks was more than overdue, and I really hope to see you continue posting
your forecasts. Thank you - you are an amazing gift to all traders!
I was also wondering whether you could be so kind as to show your intraday forecast
for the following Monday as well in your weekly forecasts at
http://www.cyclelt.com/INT.htm ? I noticed that you recently put in last Friday's
forecast together with the current week. Would it be possible to replace that with the
following Monday's forecast please? As a trader, I often have difficulty wondering
whether to hold a position through the weekend so a forecast for the following Monday
would be invaluable. Thank you so much once again: your charts keep getting better
and better, and I very much appreciate all the additions you've been making to the
intraday charts page! You're the best, really! Kind regards, C
Thanks C ... for your kind comments about my effort and original research. I do not get
much feedback, so yours was very welcome. My audience out there is quite static, so spread
the good news, that is the only thing you can do; to secure the duration for this service, since
I have kept publishing for my own reasons - it has given that added incentive. I do not know
how far I can take it. At times I do wonder if anyone appreciate an improvement barring a
small group maybe. Some have been with me for some time, even after I got it wrong in
2008. That has always forced me to try harder, and go back to the drawing board. Your
wish/ request will be granted this weekend. I will extend Chart 1A and 1B to Monday.
Regards Helge.
Update [February 2nd 2010]: Hello, First, let me say a huge thanks for your work.
It is really quite amazing. I did have a question as I was trying to reconcile the current
week's graph with the table. It appears that the data in the table is a day ahead of the
data shown in Chart 1. If this was in error, I just wanted to report it to you. If I am
mistaken about my interpretation of it, please let me know that too. :) Thanks J.T.
Thanks J.T. - I take all the recognition that comes my way, for my hard work. Today I was
also amazed that the market climbed back from the Asian session, you would think a break
down would come, but the Intraday Cycle seems to want to be reckoned with. I hope
visitors will find the 24 hours price picture with the Mini Dow YMH10 - helpful, including
people residing in Asia, Europe and in all time zones.
The flaw in the table is corrected, it was due to the inclusion of Friday from last week. The
purpose was to see were the market came from, when a new week starts. I am always
grateful for the attentive visitors, that notify me about such matters. No need to remind me of
my flawed English though, its not my mother tongue, I am also a dyslectic, and I struggle very
hard to improve that aspect as well.
Update [February 1st 2010]: The Dow Jones Transportation Index is added to the
important chart series: [Cycle-LT144Z]. In my view if one study the four chart series daily on
this page, one should be posted, when it comes to the Cycle-LT Method related to the
US-Stockmarket.
"The nerds" who wants more details can take from here. From now the intraday studies will
use the liquid Dow MINI Future around the clock - YM[H10]. The overnight session is often
well predicted, and one visitor says it works well for the German DAX Index.
Update [January 31st 2010]: The Intraday study is upgraded with a Long Term chart for
the US - Session.- see Chart 6. An improved Long Term study linked to the Raw Numbers
as well. Do also pay attention to the Transportation Index, place in the Raw Numbers Page.
From now the Intraday charts will be represented with the Mini Dow [YMH10]. Its often do
well overnight, and I might update the chart before US open.
Update [January 23rd 2010]: An event full week indeed. Its a long time since I have
watched CNBC, and I turned it on 16:00 New York time, and I was amazed by Maria
Bartiroma having invited only people with cracks in their voices and flickering eyes telling us
what a great guy Bernanke has been. Even reading a note from Greenspan, and what a great
guy he was - speaking mostly like a Sufi Master. His master was Ayn Rand, and I really
wonder what she would have said about the last two years. I bet I she would not have held
back, opinionated as she was. They were evidently circling the wagon to night, even speaking
well about bankers, almost like appeasing terrorists.
As stated I will not offer specific interpretations, but I can still draw attention to important
factors. My personal purpose for arranging the charts in this way I have done, is to watch
them day by day or say week by week and get a real time feel to what extent the cycles
"speak for the market." We reached a Trigger last weekend, and we are certainly within the
The Bigger Triggers influence, see the two last charts here, and the Trigger Cycles are found
at the bottom of most of the Dow studies. Then study the Trigger chart series proper, and see
how this approx. 102 days [top-bottom-top] cycle might cause reversals or accelerations in
price.
I am very pleased with the new Cycle-LT144Z, and the mentioned divergence in Chart 2,
could give a rationale for why the market held out so long, while losing momentum earlier or
rather late August, when most of the averages turned south. Chart 3 shows that we tipped
over before we reached the very peak in the Raw Numbers, which were today. This is not
uncommon looking at the history. Thats why I think one should go technical, when the cycle
might suggest an event. The technical factors or the market will normally show its hands, and
every detail in the cycle will not be fulfilled. I say this because I would at times be inhibited by
the cycle not fully being adhered to. It never will. These are really only probability studies,
and as gamblers say: one should play the percentages. Finally I would look at the Big Picture.
Early 2011 is the time we should expect major trend change, and a lot can happen before
that.
Finally look at the long term intraday charts. The Intraday Cycle will always stay within a
range, but volatility, which we see here, might signify action in the bigger picture. Then real
experience watching also this study during a major event, might add valuable clues in the
future. On a given day most of the rate of change will be just within an hour or two, and it
does not have to be in the most "impressive parts" of the Intraday Cycle. Even so Thursday
and Friday suggested weakness towards the end of the week. Still more important is that the
market takes out important resistance.
Update [March 3rd 2010]: On the Trigger- and Seasonal Page, I have posted a historic
study for the Seasonal Cycle [Sensitive Version] from 2000. If will give an instant impression
of the cycle for almost ten years, based on historic data from 1885.
Of course it does not repeat itself perfectly, but its worth paying attention to - while looking
at all other factors. Many seasoned commodity traders never buck the seasonal cycle. There
is Special Study, a table displaying every date of the year.
NB: The Intraday Charts are updated approx. half an hour before NYSE opens, so refresh
the charts. From my point; its seems like all charts must be refreshed to see the latest
movements in price.
Update [March 2nd 2010]: The important now is that is a disagreement with the Raw
Numbers and the Intraday Cycle, see Chart 8. For Raw Numbers its just as spike. Study
Cycle-LT144Z Chart 3 and the Closer View.
Update [February 21st 2010]: The Intraday Comment Page updated.
Update [February 18th 2010]: Let me write this on a slightly personal note, and partly out
of relief for having stopped offering predictions - it has cleared my own mind/ thinking. Its a
huge distraction, on top of being the worst kind of ego trip. During the wash out in the early
part of 2009, I kept looking at the Raw Numbers here - thinking the market should rally, with
all the experience I had with the indicator. Still with the noise, fear and hysteria out there, you
would start to think: OK - it will rally, but any weakness in the indicator will favour the
bearish camp. The rest is history, just the opposite transpired.
This thinking did not come from a rational point of view, for if you really are a contrarian, this
is the only rational thinking there is - in observing the market, but in silence. Contrarians
announcing their stance, can by definition not be contrarians, its just another ego trip, on top
of exposing your own disbelief in yourself. Its just like a politician trying to rally support.
Every expert opinion are like that, have you noticed how your mind change, when committed
to a position, when the fill is in? You cant "be trusted anymore." The veterans Market Vane,
always polled advisors, not the public, and they also speak after they are filled, including the
minority. Been there done that.
Be a contrarian, and shut up, and remember for a while the majority will be right, when the
super tanker is in motion. It takes time.
Being a contrarian is as demanding as becoming a true Zen Master, you simply have to
overcome emotionally driven thinking, and thats what makes it so difficult; that is what
99.99% are shouting from the roof tops. So I will rest my case, present the data and shut up.
I would watch CNBC and see that guests/ "experts" in studio, kept an eye on the Dow bug,
and modified or hedged their opinions in the course of the interview. A guy mailed me, told
me he was way ahead of me. Good for him, he does not publish or sent me a graph, just the
name of his algorithm. I am very happy for him, for to say anything about the future is a tall
order in the best of times.
So this just to reiterate my point of view: The format of this web site has been completed
recently, I have posted charts for historical reference, and this will be done for Intraday from
this weekend. Then its every man/ women for himself/ herself. I can guaranty the integrity of
the numbers, they are generated 200 % mechanically, and their merit is for anyone to assess.
Read my disclaimer, this is a free of charge service, I publish for my own personal reasons,
until they are no longer there. I will continue to write with hindsight, just to try develop some
general rules of interpretation, again for my own reasons. The publishing has been
instrumental in developing a 100% original method. Sure others do the same, I have just built
the algorithm without looking elsewhere, its all based on my own trial and error, which have
consumed countless hours unpaid labour.
Update [February 17th 2010]: The Intraday Comment Page updated.
Update [February 14th 2010]: The Intraday Comment Page updated.
Update [February 12th 2010]: The Intraday Comment Page updated.
Update [February 11th 2010]: A new Intraday Page for those who really want to go
deeper into the subject matter of the forces effecting the stock market over hours, rather then
days and weeks. Here the historic data will be stored, and should be valuable for all
interested in cycles.
Update [February 10th 2010]: I was asked to show a detailed chart for coming Tuesday,
since Monday is closed: Intraday Today. In the regular chart series Chart 4B, has a trading
band, its an experiment. It will not be like a Bollinger Band for price, but it might just give a
feel; if the market is overextended or in balance.
Update [February 5th 2010]: Dear Helge, I have been studying your intraday charts
since December last year and must thank you for so generously sharing your brilliant
forecasts with the world. Your work is more than impressive and the best part is that
you are able to remain so humble about your considerable achievements. So I thought
a note of thanks was more than overdue, and I really hope to see you continue posting
your forecasts. Thank you - you are an amazing gift to all traders!
I was also wondering whether you could be so kind as to show your intraday forecast
for the following Monday as well in your weekly forecasts at
http://www.cyclelt.com/INT.htm ? I noticed that you recently put in last Friday's
forecast together with the current week. Would it be possible to replace that with the
following Monday's forecast please? As a trader, I often have difficulty wondering
whether to hold a position through the weekend so a forecast for the following Monday
would be invaluable. Thank you so much once again: your charts keep getting better
and better, and I very much appreciate all the additions you've been making to the
intraday charts page! You're the best, really! Kind regards, C
Thanks C ... for your kind comments about my effort and original research. I do not get
much feedback, so yours was very welcome. My audience out there is quite static, so spread
the good news, that is the only thing you can do; to secure the duration for this service, since
I have kept publishing for my own reasons - it has given that added incentive. I do not know
how far I can take it. At times I do wonder if anyone appreciate an improvement barring a
small group maybe. Some have been with me for some time, even after I got it wrong in
2008. That has always forced me to try harder, and go back to the drawing board. Your
wish/ request will be granted this weekend. I will extend Chart 1A and 1B to Monday.
Regards Helge.
Update [February 2nd 2010]: Hello, First, let me say a huge thanks for your work.
It is really quite amazing. I did have a question as I was trying to reconcile the current
week's graph with the table. It appears that the data in the table is a day ahead of the
data shown in Chart 1. If this was in error, I just wanted to report it to you. If I am
mistaken about my interpretation of it, please let me know that too. :) Thanks J.T.
Thanks J.T. - I take all the recognition that comes my way, for my hard work. Today I was
also amazed that the market climbed back from the Asian session, you would think a break
down would come, but the Intraday Cycle seems to want to be reckoned with. I hope
visitors will find the 24 hours price picture with the Mini Dow YMH10 - helpful, including
people residing in Asia, Europe and in all time zones.
The flaw in the table is corrected, it was due to the inclusion of Friday from last week. The
purpose was to see were the market came from, when a new week starts. I am always
grateful for the attentive visitors, that notify me about such matters. No need to remind me of
my flawed English though, its not my mother tongue, I am also a dyslectic, and I struggle very
hard to improve that aspect as well.
Update [February 1st 2010]: The Dow Jones Transportation Index is added to the
important chart series: [Cycle-LT144Z]. In my view if one study the four chart series daily on
this page, one should be posted, when it comes to the Cycle-LT Method related to the
US-Stockmarket.
"The nerds" who wants more details can take from here. From now the intraday studies will
use the liquid Dow MINI Future around the clock - YM[H10]. The overnight session is often
well predicted, and one visitor says it works well for the German DAX Index.
Update [January 31st 2010]: The Intraday study is upgraded with a Long Term chart for
the US - Session.- see Chart 6. An improved Long Term study linked to the Raw Numbers
as well. Do also pay attention to the Transportation Index, place in the Raw Numbers Page.
From now the Intraday charts will be represented with the Mini Dow [YMH10]. Its often do
well overnight, and I might update the chart before US open.
Update [January 23rd 2010]: An event full week indeed. Its a long time since I have
watched CNBC, and I turned it on 16:00 New York time, and I was amazed by Maria
Bartiroma having invited only people with cracks in their voices and flickering eyes telling us
what a great guy Bernanke has been. Even reading a note from Greenspan, and what a great
guy he was - speaking mostly like a Sufi Master. His master was Ayn Rand, and I really
wonder what she would have said about the last two years. I bet I she would not have held
back, opinionated as she was. They were evidently circling the wagon to night, even speaking
well about bankers, almost like appeasing terrorists.
As stated I will not offer specific interpretations, but I can still draw attention to important
factors. My personal purpose for arranging the charts in this way I have done, is to watch
them day by day or say week by week and get a real time feel to what extent the cycles
"speak for the market." We reached a Trigger last weekend, and we are certainly within the
The Bigger Triggers influence, see the two last charts here, and the Trigger Cycles are found
at the bottom of most of the Dow studies. Then study the Trigger chart series proper, and see
how this approx. 102 days [top-bottom-top] cycle might cause reversals or accelerations in
price.
I am very pleased with the new Cycle-LT144Z, and the mentioned divergence in Chart 2,
could give a rationale for why the market held out so long, while losing momentum earlier or
rather late August, when most of the averages turned south. Chart 3 shows that we tipped
over before we reached the very peak in the Raw Numbers, which were today. This is not
uncommon looking at the history. Thats why I think one should go technical, when the cycle
might suggest an event. The technical factors or the market will normally show its hands, and
every detail in the cycle will not be fulfilled. I say this because I would at times be inhibited by
the cycle not fully being adhered to. It never will. These are really only probability studies,
and as gamblers say: one should play the percentages. Finally I would look at the Big Picture.
Early 2011 is the time we should expect major trend change, and a lot can happen before
that.
Finally look at the long term intraday charts. The Intraday Cycle will always stay within a
range, but volatility, which we see here, might signify action in the bigger picture. Then real
experience watching also this study during a major event, might add valuable clues in the
future. On a given day most of the rate of change will be just within an hour or two, and it
does not have to be in the most "impressive parts" of the Intraday Cycle. Even so Thursday
and Friday suggested weakness towards the end of the week. Still more important is that the
market takes out important resistance.
Market Comment Page:
| SNAP SHOT CHARTS: [The Big Picture] - [The Closer View] - [Big Picture Intraday] In addition a single Indicator with explanatory text and historic chart: [Cycle-LT144Z] |
Cycle - LT/ [US - Stock Market Cycles] Stock Market Comments .......